When I was a Boy, I Walked Seven Miles Through The Snow

Yesterday was Thanksgiving (in the USA, for my faithful international readers, all 4 of them). It’s gotten to the point that you worry about celebrating any commemorative occasion that has to do with Native Americans. You know, since homicidal beginnings are almost inevitably built into the origins of all them, you figure it’s some kind of political gesture–and not a good one. And this is not a subject of humor. This year, I made a few cracks about Columbus Day (hey, I’m Italian-American. Columbus WAS first) and I ended up almost losing a friend and deeply regretting that I said anything. And I’m, at heart, a historian. Maybe that’s why I get into trouble so easily: I tend to worry about details or anachronisms or petty stuff like that, and I end up sounding like Eammon Duffy on burning Protestants during the English Counter Reformation. Well, I wish I could sound like Eammon Duffy on anything, but let it pass. Suffice it to say, these ethnobonfires are not my style. I’m sorry Squanto lies buried under a golf course somewhere. We weren’t around, or we would have told him that you don’t trust medeganz.

In any event, Thanksgiving is one of what I would call an “anchor holiday.” Now, in behavioral economics, “anchoring” has a precise meaning. Basically, it suggests that the first value you select or pay or see or something has an outsized effect on subsequent decisions you make, rational, correct, or not. The effect has been widely observed in all sorts of fields; some of us may just regard anchoring as “stubborn insistence” in the face of changing information. The first sci-fi movie I saw had slimy ET’s. I expect ET to be slimy. Even seeing a non-slimy ET (or any ET) will not change my feeling that I saw a slimy ET. Anchoring.

I think, not to put to fine a point on it, that for a lot of us, a day like Thanksgiving is an anchor holiday. You celebrate it each year–or I do, at least–but my first memories of Thanksgivings, back in the 1950s and early 1960s, have an outside effect on shaping my expectations as to what an appropriate Thanksgiving Day will be. Anything else feels weird, whether it is objectively weird or not. So I grew up in Philadelphia before climate change was a thing. I grew up at a time when you could and did burn fallen leaves from trees whose aroma spiced the chilly Fall air. I expect Thanksgiving to be chilly, and maybe burning-leaf scented, turkey apart. I just do. Even moving to another part of the country always evinced the sensation that “it doesn’t feel like Thanksgiving or Christmas” even though I had no reason to think Christmas in California was going to feel like Christmas in Philadelphia. The anchor of my early years, formative experiences, or at least what I remember or THINK I remember as formative experiences is too powerful. My narrative is set by an anchor created at least 60 years ago. Another time.

I was forcefully reminded of this phenomenon by watching a rather extraordinary film of the Thanksgiving Day parade in Philadelphia from 1934. With sound. I am going to put that up first so you can look at it too, or you can simply skip over it. I was transfixed.

Gimbel’s 1934 Thanksgiving Day Parade, Philadelphia PA

Impressive, huh. A soundie from “back in the day” documenting the way Philly’s parade used to work. A buff Santa climbing the window into Gimbel’s toy department at Eighth and Market. Santa looks like a refugee from Dickens, and the crowd, as befitting a city that was around 90 percent white, evinces no diversity. Well, those are faithful reflections of the times–when FDR and Hitler were on a collision course, a first class letter cost 3 cents to mail (still true in my childhood if you didn’t seal it), and Lou Larkins (my Dad, God rest his soul) was maybe in his junior year at West Catholic High School for Boys (he had a medical problem that delayed his graduation, and nearly killed him, not to say made him a genuine 4F, but I’m not sure what year it was). And look at the togs. Little kids turned out sweetly in little fleece trimmed coats. Dudes in box coats with Fedora hats. Wow. Must have been a chilly one. You know. Philly in late November. My Dad was forever lecturing my adolescent self about how I didn’t really know what it was to endure a walk to school in the snow, because the winters were awfully cold and snowy, And it was the Depression. Cold is colder in a depression, right. I took a comfy school bus out to Devon and lived in luxury. Tom Brokaw was right. They were the Greatest Generation.

One small problem with this story. It was rainy in Philly that day. Streets look wet and the cops are in old fashioned slickers. The high in Philly that day was 64F and the low was 56F. The average high in Philly in November is 55F and the low is 40F. It might have been rainy (it was), but it wasn’t chilly. Depression or no. Old days or not. It was, well, mild. Well, if it was mild, how come all those people are overdressed? Oh, oh.

I don’t do the history of fashion, let alone the history of American fashion.

However, I can look stuff up, and I know the men dressed much more formally then than they do now, where we go out onto the streets looking like we should be collecting FROM UNICEF. Lord, even I get embarassed. I don’t think I own a fedora–nor have I ever. And if I went out in one, people would probably think I’d lost it.

Look at this lovely photo. Now, the guy may be dressed for a night on the town, but I assure you, he didn’t go shopping in a hoodie and sweats. This was the way men dressed, modified slightly for warmer weather, but, by and large, put together the same way. No,

1930s dude. Normal togs

it wasn’t chilly in Philly that day in 1934. It was Thanksgiving. Maybe slightly dressy for the holiday, but not by much. Men dressed, and not just to keep warm. So it wasn’t chilly. It was a day in the life. It’s hard to be a good historian.

My curiosity was piqued, of course. I know that since the 1960s, the average temperature in the city of Philadelphia has risen an astounding 5F. Some of this is urban heat island effect, where buildings, roads, and infrastructure absorb and emit much more of the sun’s heat than natural areas, and the city has been built up considerably since the 1930s. So there is that. But there is an irreducible residual that is climate change, and if you have an open mind, you’re not going argue much with the idea that the average temperature was lower 60 years ago. It’s about more than temperature, of course, but this isn’t a science blog.

So I started to wonder, what was the weather on Thanksgiving in Philly in the past? If you were to ask me, I’d instantly respond, “colder, much colder.” “Are you sure?” “Oh absolutely; I remember one Thanksgiving when Dad and I went for a walk and there were snow flurries. Probably 1966 or so. Hmm. So when I was a boy, yeah, I did trudge through all that snow.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. Because we have daily records of temperature and precipitation back to 1888, I decided to do some checking. This was not intensive research, and I have a lot of questions about measurement errors and biases and technical stuff that I won’t bore you with. They are important in scientific work, but no one should sweat that for purposes of a casual discussion.

Let’s take the long view. This is a graph of the maximum (red dot) and minimum (blue dot) average temperature in Philadelphia from 1888 through 2020. They are displayed in 5 year moving average form. This way, you don’t smooth out the fluctuations too much, as with a 10 year moving average. But you also don’t get the eye-watering chop of annual observations. These days, the time-series people are always telling us not to just look because appearances might be deceptive. Problem is, when I went to school, my econ teachers said before you start getting fancy, just look at the thing you’re analyzing. Old habits die hard, so we’re gonna look at the lines. Bear in mind that a degree or two in the long run is a lot, but on a year-to-year basis, well, so what. And bear in mind this is one day a year, which, strictly speaking, proves nothing at all. Still, play along.

If you’re like me, you’ll probably say “I don’t see much of a trend at all.” Both extremes look more or less flat, no? Now, please, don’t jump to conclusions about climate change. You can’t on this basis. But what you can say, if you want to is, more or less

From 1888 to 2020, the temperature, max and minimum on Thanksgiving Day in Philadelphia, was more or less the same. Oh, sure, there were annual variations. If you wanted, you could see some brief periods when the temperatures seemed to be higher, mid 1930s and 1940s, or late 1960s, when temperatures were a little higher. But nothing really eye-popping. The 1960s really surprised me, because, like my Father, I remember things a lot colder. You know, we had real weather then.

–Salvucci Sez

Oh really? Not on Thanksgiving. Maybe if you go back to the 1880s and 1890s. But even then, they didn’t take the temperature at International Airport for obvious reasons. There wasn’t one. Wherever they measured temperature then might have been colder, but who knows? It don’t look it. And like when my Dad was young, same deal. He might have frozen his rear off trudging to West, but not on Thanksgiving. If anything, it was getting warmer then. Sorry Lou.

So if it wasn’t bitterly cold on Thanksgiving when I was a kid, why do I think it was? Well, for one thing, the Thanksgiving my Dad and I went for a walk in West Philly and it flurried really made an impression on me. How could it not? He didn’t take me for a walk every day, especially as I got older. And every day wasn’t Thanksgiving. I can see that day in my mind’s eye as clearly as if it were this past Thrusday. That is “Thanksgiving when I was younger.” It turned out to be a referential anchor around which I constructed an entire narrative. I’m certain Dad had a similar experience. There are only a handful of people in the world (the actress Marilu Henner is one) who rerun their entire lives in memory day-by-day. So the striking first-glimpsed object becomes the whole. Or maybe it’s even simpler. Global warming and climate change are a fact. I know it was different 60 years ago. So why should I expect Thanksgiving to be an exception, if it was? Different anchor?

Well, fine, like so what, as Stanley Stein used to say? Well, I guarantee you, a lot of people looking at that film clip from 1934 will say “What a racist place Philadelphia was. Where are all the people of color? You see, American is built on white privilege.” Hold it, not so fast. Maybe it is, and may Philadelphia was. Somehow I don’t doubt it. But the “evidence” doesn’t “prove” it. There’s no context: it isn’t true to say there were no people of color in Philadelphia, because there were. Yet Philly was around 90 percent “white.” Even a random sample of Philadelphians would have looked pretty white, and there’s plenty of reason to think a crowd of holiday parade attendees wasn’t a random sample. I know people in my family who always worked on holidays, and by 1934, whatever Italians were up North, they weren’t Black. They were working class and a lot less affluent than the attendees at an Epicopalian church supper. Maybe you went to the Parade. Maybe not.

Does it make me a racist to observe this? No. It makes me a historian. Or at least it used to, before a lot of Americans went nuts, call it pc, woke, whatever you want. One of the first things they used to teach aspiring historians was that a generation’s interpretation or narrative probably said as much, if not more about the generation doing the interpreting than about the “event” itself. At least I learned that in 1970, and I saw plenty of evidence to support the point (No one reads Thomas Pressly’s Americans Interpret Their Civil War any more. Maybe they should.) No, now it’s the other way around. If the past doesn’t conform to our expectations, well, the actors in the past were wrong. Like, God help us, Columbus, who wasn’t a Progressive Democrat. Right. Well, he wasn’t, for sure, but before you demonize him (or anyone else), maybe you should, God forbid, read a little “obsolete” history, whatever that is.

How we shape narratives; what works and what doesn’t; why they change; how keep some perspective on the fact that the past, as someone put it, is a foreign country where they do things differently, is a real challenge. How do you not lose your soul, or your ability to judge evil, or even simple inefficiency? You know what? There’s no simple guide. Learning to empathize with an historical actor is by no means the same thing as sympathizing with the actor. It’s why people used to spend a lifetime trying to learn to get into the heads of the people they studied. But that’s hard, and I promise you, you won’t become an influencer anytime soon. Being a good historian is a bad career move. It’s a lot easier to be censorious. Self-serving comment? Yeah, it probably is. Like one British historian said, “A moment’s thought might convince you otherwise. But thinking is hard. And a moment is a long time.”

Back after the Holidays. I know. You can’t wait.

Dare to Be Different

“Who is whistling?” Spoken with a Transylvanian accent and the imperious inflection of a person with the habit of command. I’m guessing Fall 1964. On the steps of gym in some Godforsaken place called Devon PA. Little did my 13-year old self know this would be a life-changing day for me. Damn good thing. I might have gotten the Hell out of there while I could. You know, like, for want of a nail? That kind of thing.

It was different, alright. I was a kind of more or less normal adolescent, give or take a trumpet. And my taste in music was stuck in the 1930s, but otherwise, whatever passed for normal. Definitely not cool, but sane, if Catholic. Man, Devon Preparatory School put an end To All That. In the end, I guess, it’s all worked out. But I wonder what would have happened had I gone to the garden variety public high school (Lower Merion) where an early heartthrob had proceeded me. I might have played. Maybe I would have been marginally less neurotic. I could have been a contender. You know the story. Or maybe I would have ended up in Viet Nam. Who knows? And gotten killed or truly screwed up. At least two guys from Lower Merion died in Vietnam. I think Devon was spared.

Nobody used the word “nerd” in 1965, but had they used it, Devon would have been nerdy. When you got their propaganda, the class photos had guys with short hair and white socks who looked like the should be working in some accounting firm in Reading. Actually, the “dork” was common, and you could be sitting in Latin class and hear someone yell “McNally, you dork” on the way to the gym. I actually did. Poor guy. Devon was a dorky place. It did not have the social prestige of Episcopal or Haverford. Or the cafone pretensions of Malvern, Devon’s Catholic arch rival, who actually had a football team (I think) and played in the Interac League. No, we were the “bookish” ones. Supposedly. Supposedly, we were all, umm, not very masculine. I once had a girl from a Catholic school sing me a ditty

I used to go to Malvern Prep and I was quite contrary
Now I go to Devon Prep. Whoops, I'm a fairy.

I was thrilled, needless to say. Remember, this was 1965. Pre-Stonewall. So I spent a good deal of time working against stereotype. It wasn’t difficult, believe me. Devon wasn’t Georgetown Prep, by any means, but any female presence on campus was apt to cause much disorder. Guys with cute sisters were popular.

Anyway, Devon was weird. Not everyone liked it, for sure, and the rules and discipline could be medieval. No smoking. No cigarettes. You got caught, you were out. No appeal. I recently learned one of my deceased classmates used to sneak smokes behind the gym. Thank God I didn’t know; I would have joined him. And got tossed. If I was taking the Pennsylvania Railroad home, I’d get down to Devon station, wait for the train, and light up once I was on a car. Or get well away from campus, usually much closer to Philly, and then smoke. Big deal, right? I did run into one of the Spanish priests on a Friday afternoon at a nearby shopping center where I was indulging. I froze. He froze. “What brand?” Then he bummed a smoke from me. The rebels just seemed to find each other at Devon. Priests included.

And there were rebels. One of the priests, Luis Arsuaga, was Basque. He was a good dude. By the time we were Freshmen, we knew, thanks to his religion class, that nobody took the Bible literally. 1965. Conservative Catholic school. You wonder why the South drives me crazy? I was 14 and we were talking metaphors, fables, and symbols in the Bible. Literally true? C’mon man. It might have been right-wing, but it wasn’t check your brain at the door. Luis also got into a famous public dispute with the Headmaster (of whom more below) in which he made public reference to intimate relations between the Headmaster and his Secretary. Luis was gone at the end of the year. To Colombia. Where he eventually died. As a Basque, Luis had no time for fascists. Wrong place, Luis. Even then Devon had its quota, and I didn’t call it Trump Prep then.

Since there were still priests then, we had quite a few, of the Piarist Order. No, not the Jesuits, much less the Agustinians. Their motto was Pietas et Litterae and it fit. Ours were a remnant of the old Hapsburgh Empire, Hungarians and Spanish. At best, as in the Empire, they tolerated each other. The order was founded by St Joseph Calasanctius, whom we regarded with due reserve. And when we got into hot water–frequently–we got to kneel in front of his portrait.

Yeah, that one. Know it well.

The priests were mostly known by nicknames: Chico, Tony, Stubby, The Big O, Ripple, Wheels, Stan, Paz, and, fearsomely, for obvious reasons upon viewing, Nose, aka Steven Senye, Sch.P. A lot of people thought Nose was a bastard. You’ll remember I met him whistling on the steps on the way to the entrance exam. He was no pussycat, for sure. Dour, severe, hair-trigger temper, domineering. I believe he was founding Headmaster in 1956 (I may well be wrong). Notice the date. 1956. As in Hungarian Uprising against the Soviets. Well, the Hungarians had to go somewhere after we didn’t liberate them, poor fools. So some of them came to the US, and to Devon, Pennsylvania. Lucky us. They were sort of po’d at the US, not surprisingly, and sometimes, we caught a whiff of Anti-Americanism. I never saw anyone actually get slugged, but we all knew a well placed Piarist index finger jabbed in the solar plexus could put a dude out of commission. That I saw. Along with plenty of yelling, when stuff got tacky. It wasn’t an everyday thing, but it happened. Different times, you know? Were the Hungarians Horthyite fascists? God, who knew? They weren’t Liberals.

You had to know how to handle these guys. Having been around Sicilians and various crazy Italians most of my life, I knew better than to confront them head on. So I sort of humored them, basically, and, for the most part, it worked. I learned to imitate the accents, one or two of them especially well. Chico caught me once chewing out a class in his inimitable Spanglish. He only glared, but afterward, allowed as how I did him very very well. He later left the priesthood, so, you know not all these guys were with the program. It was figuring out who you could mess with. Nose wasn’t one of them. For most, the assistant head, Fr. Magyar (Wheels, as in Mag wheels…..) wasn’t either. The rest was situational, which some of my dimmer classmates never quite got.

The academics were tough. Man, they didn’t mess around. I figure Devon probably ended my budding career as a trumpet player in two ways. I wasn’t a natural player as a kid, and I did practice. A lot. Usually an hour or so a day in grade school, and more in the Summer. My first teacher was the Band Director at the Catholic diocesan high school, and he had big plans for me. Cause I had some technique and some range, so he figured he had a lead even if it turned out I couldn’t play jazz. But I didn’t go to his school. My Mother wanted me at Devon, because she was afraid I had hoodlum potential. So, long story short, commuting about an hour and a half a day to Devon from just outside West Philly cut into practice time. And then Devon’s academic demands did the rest. I just wasn’t talented enough or bright enough to cut corners with the horn or the books. And I found I sort of liked history, literature and languages, surprise. And even matrix algebra. My God. This was HIGH SCHOOL. But it took a lot of work.

Devon had no music program then. I started to fall behind because I cut back on practice because of time constraints, which made my teacher unhappy. So Salvucci Aspiring Trumpet player got canned as a trumpet student by this guy. If I wasn’t gonna play for him, well, he wasn’t interested. That wasn’t exactly that. I continued private lessons with another teacher (who was a better player, frankly), but he got sick, and I took a break from instruction. I figured I knew enough to continue on my own, which was, like, wrong path. Playing backup to some Martha and the Vandellas stuff wasn’t exactly working on Haydn or Charlier. So I stopped really practicing, developing, and even though I was playing, got to college and quit. To this day, I think Devon was a big factor in my not playing. Or so I tell myself. I think I already sensed my limits. You could still buy Harry James’ solos, and they made for, well…..painful self-discovery.

Truth was, I also discovered I liked Dante. And Tudor-Stuart history. And, Lord, Spanish and Latin. And James Joyce. And John Donne. Weird, man. Who likes that stuff at 15? Guilty. So I spent more and more time on my studies. Which didn’t exactly produce Super Chops. So if you wonder why I worship Roy and Dizzy, wonder not. I come by it honestly. Every instrument is tough, but the trumpet is a killer. Very few can get on top of the damn thing without a lot of very hard work. I sure as Hell couldn’t. Two hours of practice a day was out if I wanted to even be a B student. Opportunity cost, you know.

But Devon also did something else for me, or to me. I came from a working class family. I watched my father put himself through Penn at night even though he worked during the day. My Mother worked. Everyone worked. That’s just the way it was. You wanted something, you worked for it. Period. Devon was the same way. I did well enough, but I never thought I was particularly smart. That isn’t false modesty. I wasn’t an idiot–those I had seen at Prisontation, but I was no genius. So how good did you want to be meant how hard did you want to work? This has always served me well, other than in my last 15 years of teaching. I rarely taught a kid who could have cut it at Devon. Even the graduates of the so-called elite Texas high schools. Especially the Jesuit ones. The worst ones. Smug and self-satisfied. Like that guy on the Supreme Court. Frank is a big exception, and the Jezzies mostly hate him.

What about this “Dare to Be Different” stuff? Well, that was Nose’s motto. Oh, I took it to heart. Fr. Senye took off with his secretary after my senior year, so all the tongue wagging that went on, well. No, I don’t think they were getting it on and I don’t think he was a hypocrite. I’m not even going to speculate what was going. Who knows what he saw in Hungary growing up? Dare to be different for sure. Nose’s motto could have been “get your ass and your brain in gear.” Or I’ll do it for you.

There was a lot more to Devon. Maybe some other time. I think it ended my career as a musician. Ironically, even though I stopped going to Church, I stayed Catholic. Piarists married me and buried my Mom. We’ll figure that out one of these days. I think Luis Arsuaga had a lot to do with it.

Payback is Hell

You a movie fan? I am. I have no taste at all and will watch nearly (well, not Nick Cage) anything. Sometimes the worse, the better. Camp is my thing.

I loved Independence Day. More than anything, I loved Jeff Goldblum, the germaphobe nerd programmer, but there was one character, a minor one, a drunken, ex-fighter jock turned crop-duster in the Central Valley who claimed to have been kidnapped by aliens. His redneck friends at the local diner loved to torment him, asking if “them thar little green men performed experiments (wink, wink) on you.” At the end, dude flies an F-4 up the business end of one of those alien behemoth vehicles laying siege to planet Earth, armed with a nuke. Grinning like a loon, he yells out “Payback is Hell.” Perfect. I still giggle.

Well, this is about payback. No, I’m not gonna even the score with one of my late unlamented colleagues from Euphoric State, or some academic nemesis, or even some more recent colleague. Nop. I’m above that (right). I’m talking about a long unseen economic phenomenon in the United States. Something we didn’t even bother to talk about in macro (hint: it was all we talked about in 1979-80 when I was at Villanova). The dreaded I-word. Gulp. Inflation. It’s baaaaack.

Inflation is defined as a fall in the purchasing power of money. Since money is basically a way of making claims on what is produced, inflation is creating a false claim. Maybe I made “x” and my compensation for that is measured in money (which in our system, the Federal Reserve indirectly creates). Ok. Suppose the government arbitrarily created another claim on the good and gives it you. Logic suggest that both claims are now worth half as much, because there has been nothing real created other than to let you claim what was mine. More or less, that’s what happens. Whether that is actually what is driving prices up in the US right now is an open question: maybe, maybe not. But the media, including the otherwise usually sober FT has sounded the tocsin. Hold on to your savings. The day of reckoning is at hand.

Let’s say, for the same of argument, that inflation is back. Say prices start rising at 5 percent a year. This after years of near zero, and predictions that near zero it would be forever. So this is a surprise. Unexpected inflation. Oh, oh. Aside from the usual political nonsense–Joe Biden and the Democrats cause inflation! (Don’t laugh. Jimmy Carter found out it may be nonsense, but in America, you’ll notice, nonsense sells), you are going to want to ask yourself, what? How does this affect me? Sorry to disappoint you, but you’re going to have to look that up. I have something else in mind.

My revised edition of Allen and Alchian, University Economics (grin, just to piss anthro- and sociology people off, renamed Universal Economics), p. 666 (!), helpfully points out that inflation really messes with the heads of government bondholders. By eroding their wealth. If the bond is paying 3 percent interest, and inflation rises to 5 percent, the “real” return on the bond is minus two (-2) percent. Really? Really. Because you put our money out on the assumption that 3 percent per year would be enough to reward you for not using it. But all of a sudden, the price of everything (the price level) is rising even faster. The interest you get back doesn’t compensate for the erosion of purchasing power by inflation. You are now poorer. You have realized a loss in wealth. Ouch. But your loss is someone else’s gain (funny that). Who gains? Well, the person who borrowed the money is paying you back less in purchasing power than he or she borrowed. Sooooooo, the debtor gains. And the creditor loses.

Now, what in Heaven’s name does this have to do with payback. Heh. Guess? Well, who is the largest holder of US government bonds? More than a trillion dollars worth. Canada? No. England? No. The People’s Republic of China. I’m talking Reds. That’s who. Surprise!!! Boys and girls, did you know the ChiComs were our banker? Keynes once said if you owe your banker a thousand pounds, you have a problem; but if you owe your banker a million pounds, your banker does. Guess who has a problem? Li Keqiang (listen, I lost track back at Deng Xiaoping, so don’t worry…). In any event, since the Western press keeps maundering on about how these guys pose an existential threat to the planet (unlike Joe Manchin or Donald Trump), what with their ambitions in the South China Sea, their nuclear silos, their red investments all over Africa and Latin America, and their cheapo musical instruments (hey, I got a Chinese pocket trumpet), you’d think it was game set and match. Done deal. The East is Red. Maybe it is. But then again, maybe it’s a little more complicated than that. I’ve seen several versions of this movie. Both end badly, true enough, but neither one ends happily for the villain–played sequentially by Japan and Russia. Whether, in the longer scheme of things, anyone is a “victor’ I leave to you.

The point is, we started squeezing the Japanese well before they attacked Pearl Harbor. How was that? In mid 1941, the United States placed an embargo on oil to Japan, which was a very big deal. As you might suppose, the Japanese produced little of their own. If memory serves, they didn’t have a great deal in reserve either. So, guess who came out swinging?The only real surprise was that they hit Pearl Harbor: we had, I fear, figured that the Philippines, Wake or Midway might go, but Pearl, uh, uh. Whoops. You back an adversary into a corner, you don’t assume anything.

Obviously, the idea that an inflation could be any kind of equivalent to the 1941 embargo is pretty far fetched. For one thing, we’re riding in the same car. It’s not too pleasant to think what a bout of sustained price increases could do to working America, which has already been pushed to the brink. Then there are the Golden Agers. For now they may get COLA. You never know, if Uncle Sam lags COLA 2 years or more, you could probably fix our “Social Security Problem,” such as it is. No muss, no fuss. Go read the Trustees’ Reports. They’ve thought of it already. Bet Manchin would get behind it?

Besides, 5 percent is nothing, right?

Weeeellll, if it continues until 2035, it would cut the purchasing power of a dollar in half.

What’s 500 billion dollars between friends, right? We wouldn’t have even made it to the 100th Anniversary of Pearl Harbor, or my 90th birthday. I was so looking forward to both. Hell, the GDP of Taiwan is, as we speak, 689 billion dollars.

Like Jack Nicholsen said in The Departed to the Chinese chip smugglers. Aw, better you watch.

Finally, A Use for Mein Kampf

A Southlake Carroll schools leader recently told teachers that, should they have a book about the Holocaust in their classroom, they should also have materials that show an “opposing” perspective, NBC News reported.

The news outlet — which has chronicled the deeply divisive fight in Southlake over how to teach race and racism in schools — obtained an audio recording from a district meeting that included discussions about how to comply with a new Texas law, which lawmakers say was intended to bar “critical race theory” from classrooms.

From the start, educators vehemently opposed the bill, saying it was vague and would have a chilling effect on their ability to have honest conversations about America’s past and present.

The new law — similar to ones passed in other conservative states —  lists several broad topics that can’t be discussed and sets guidelines for talking about “controversial” subjects. It comes as conservative pundits and politicians have conflated critical race theory with schools’ diversity and inclusion efforts and anti-racism training, among other ideas.

“Just try to remember the concepts of [House Bill] 3979,” Gina Peddy, a Carroll administrator, said in the recording obtained by NBC News. “And make sure that if you have a book on the Holocaust, that you have one that has an opposing, that has other perspectives.”

A teacher responded: “How do you oppose the Holocaust?”

The author of a similar Senate bill, Sen. Bryan Hughes, denied that this was a proper interpretation of the new law.

State Sen. Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills, wrote on Twitter that “Southlake just got it wrong.”

“School administrators should know the difference between factual historical events and fiction,” Hancock wrote. “No legislation is suggesting the action this administrator is promoting.”

A district spokeswoman did not immediately return a call requesting comment. In a statement to NBC News, Karen Fitzgerald said the district “recognizes that all Texas teachers are in a precarious position with the latest legal requirements.”

“Our purpose is to support our teachers in ensuring they have all of the professional development, resources and materials needed. Our district has not and will not mandate books be removed nor will we mandate that classroom libraries be unavailable,” she said.

The comments stirred outrage. Texas Democratic Party Co-Executive Director Hannah Roe Beck condemned actions she called “terrifying.”

“We’re seeing books banned, educators reprimanded for teaching authentic history, and kids deprived of their right to learn about the world they’re growing up in,” she said in a statement. “Texas Republicans are censoring education to pander to rightwing extremists — and putting Texas families and kids in danger while they do.”

Ok, friends, gather round. That little squib is from the Dallas Morning News. Southlake, TX is a suburb of Dallas/Fort Worth. It aspire to be a “world class” community. Whenever I hear that phrase in Texas, I know a disaster awaits. If you are truly “world class,” whatever that is, you don’t brag about it. Nothing “world class” does.

Tonight, my spouse insisted that I listen to NBC News. She knows I don’t particularly like television of any sort, other than baseball–and even that has fallen off the radar lately. So she rarely insists. I wondered what on Earth was so important. After all, Bill Shatner lost his dignity yesterday. Aboard the flying phallus. What more did I need to see?

Ho, boy.

I have friends who live in other parts of the United States. Like California, Washington, New York, you know, even Florida, for God’s sake. They ask me, “How can you live in Texas?” I try not to get annoyed. But the truth is, I get very annoyed. Because I know, even as they ask, I ask the same question. What in God’s name am I doing here? I sort of addressed that in my last blog post. And I’m not about to go over it again. Dallas is a long way off, thank God. I don’t ask my friends in Philly how they can stand to be in the same state as York or Erie? It might not be the dumbest question I could ask, but it would be close. They would be baffled, if not insulted. What the Hell does that have to do with living in Chestnut Hill or Penfield. Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

But, you see, when you live in Texas, you get tarred with the same brush as the rest of the yahoos. It’s quite understandable. Sometimes I think the locals revel in this stuff, as if having bad breath and body odor in some kind of honor. It’s an identity. You know, Like Ted Cruz says, New York values. Yeah. I know. God forbid I should have MOMA or the NYPL at hand. I might have stroke. Or learn something.

The lame defense, perfectly logical, is don’t being making sweeping generalizations. What makes you think we’re all as ignorant as the administrators of the South Lake school district? God forbid. We all know that suits tend to be failed something or others, and in Texas, I have yet to run into one who broke the mold. Damned if I know why. I guess there has to be something for very stupid people with degrees in Education to do. In South Lake, they coordinate curriculum.

So, lookit, you really want to do something constructive? They appear to think they need something to balance anti-Holocaust writing up there. Linda, logically, thought of David Irving or some Holocaust denier. I’ll go her one better.

Y’all get on Amazon and buy Gina Peddy a copy of Mein Kampf. And send it to her. Tell her it would be a great look for students in a world class community to be carrying around something written by Adolf Hitler. It is probably tax deductible. Write it off as teach a Texan to think. Consider it a total loss.

California and Texas and Us

This is another one of those posts that is somewhat personal. It may strike you as self-serving. I guess it is. Yet given how much discussion there is in the news of the supposed exodus from California to Texas–my man Elon being the latest trekker–I find myself uniquely positioned to comment on the phenomenon. See, we (Linda and I) made this choice thirty years ago. And it was a choice. Not all choices are easy, and some of them are no fun. But having seen mene, mene, tekel, upharsin in bright letters on a wall of Dwinelle Hall at Berkeley, we packed up our tent, shook the dust of Berkeley from our feet, and departed. It was an upheaval in our personal and professional lives, and it has left its traces on both of us. No one made us do anything. It was a choice.

Some of our motivation was no different from that driving people from California today. We were simply in the vanguard. I sympathize when I hear people asking why they should spend $3,500 a month to live in a cardboard box? We had the same reaction, mutatis mutandis. One form of entertainment (no price) we enjoyed in Berkeley was to walk down Solano Avenue and look in the real estate office windows. We made few friends among the estate agents. That’s because we tended to point, look at each other, and then dissolve into laughter. Our mirth was usually accompanied by (my) profane comment on how out of their mind these NorCals seemed to be–NorCals being denizens of Northern California. We were not good for business. Typically, you could see them glaring at us like street urchins in a Dickens novel who needed “to move along.” And we did. The source of our amusement was the asking price for a less-than-modest bungalow in Albany (CA), not the toniest address in the East Bay. We were accustomed to Philadelphia real estate prices. Frankly, we thought we had landed on Mars. We had.

We lived first in Albany in a “garden apartment” which was a euphemism for a step or two above a garage. Actually, we were above a garage, I think. We lucked out and by the grace of connections, ended up living in South Berkeley on Durant Avenue in a rent-controlled apartment. You know what the Econ 1 books all say about rent control? All true. If there was a worse idea designed to provided affordable housing for the masses, I guess it must have been the apartment blocks at Chernobyl. I’m sure they we rent controlled too. But I digress.

Rent control actually enters tangentially into this story, but I don’t want to turn this into a simple lecture about markets and what happens when you mess with them in unconstructive ways. Yet I always have the feeling that Americans swear by markets, yet really don’t know the first thing about them. They go on about freedom, but they don’t understand that one of the functions of a market is to exclude (“price out”). Oh, yeah, in theory, everybody can live in Berkeley. When I went out to Cal for an interview, they took me on what I call the Temptation of Christ tour. The high point was somewhere around the Lawrence Hall of Science, up in the Berkeley Hills. There’s a spot where you get this panoramic view of the Bay Area, from up in Marin and then down the peninsula. The sunlight is glimmering (if it ain’t raining) off the Bay and you can look out through the Golden Gate into the Pacific. So they take you up there and say, sort of “All this, Fool, can be yours, if you will only fall down and worship the University of California.” Hey, wow. Where do I sign? The kid from South Philly-West Philly ain’t never seen nothing like this, all shiny and gleaming and windy and soulful and shit.

Problem was (and is) those nice little shacks up there are today going for North of 2 million dollars–well North. As an Acting Assistant Professor Step 1 (UC-ese for peon de trabajo), I was making, well, about 17K. I know. We don’t go into this to get rich. We want to shape the future. We want to make a difference. We want to shape our fields. And this is The Top Job In Your Field, which no one, I mean no one, is good enough for. I get it. Believe me. When Governor Moonbeam (Jerry Brown) told us were were working for psychic income, I didn’t jump off the Golden Gate Bridge. I took up running. And swimming. I got to the point where I could make the Fire Trail in Strawberry Canyon and then go for a swim. Being pissed off (and broke) is great motivation. I could have joined the frigging Marines in the shape I was in. But I couldn’t afford a $500,000 dog house. That wasn’t happening.

I’m going to skip the Academic Snakepit stories. Really, I got used to it. You learn, as a colleague of mine once said, “Lie to Everyone.” So I did. Which I why I don’t do it anymore. Then another colleague bawled me out for following “A Categorical Imperative to Tell the Truth.” Berkeley was many things. Dull wasn’t one of them. It was like working in the Kremlin with good coffee. One day you lied. The next day you were earnest. Then you went back to your apartment and had a drink and tried to figure out an escape plan.

No one has a God-given right to live in California. Your friendly local economic historian understands that better than most. You are Free to Choose (we met Uncle Milty at the San Francisco Fed, a great story I’ll save for another time, but I always liked and respected him). Not all choices are equally attractive. Adam Smith never said seek and you’ll always find the Golden Ring. That’s not the way it works. My historian friends who hate bourgeois economics tend not to understand this. It’s not the math they can’t understand (that doesn’t help). It’s the no free lunch part that they can’t swallow. But this is Trump’s America, so why waste my breath? Everyone’s entitled, right? That’s freedom. No taxes, no masks, no problem.

Texas was a lot hotter and a lot cheaper. The Econ will instinctively get this: the one compensates for the other. We started over in South Texas but Linda was attractive enough to Trinity for Trinity to hire me. And that’s the truth. Usually, at least back then, the only thing that motivated spousal hires was you liked the one you had and you’d take a chance on the one you didn’t. Or maybe lose both. And, LOL, saying you recruited someone from Berkeley didn’t hurt. I did get my revenge you see: I cashed out. In all seriousness, Linda did for me what I couldn’t do for her. So we lived happily ever after, with cats, kids, even a house. None of that was going to happen in California. For that, we had to come to Texas. Frankly, all kidding aside, it was a good move, even if most of my overambitious academic friends could never understand it (and told me so). Now, Mark White was Governor when we got here and Ann Richards, God Love her, was still around. The Democrats still seemed to have some juice here then. We could go into a long post mortem about what happened, but then we’d have to go back to Dallas and Jack Kennedy and John Connally, at least, and that wouldn’t start to scratch the surface. Yeah, Texas has changed–and, no, I’m not convinced it’s going to turn blue any time soon. You never know. Greg Abbott is such a schmuck even the Republicans don’t much like him. We’ll see.

Here’s the thing. A lot of people coming from California to Texas are not Liberals. A friend of mine told me his daughter moved from California to Texas “To get away from the Nanny State.” I suspect she’s not alone. You wonder how much of this migration is self-selected? Real estate in California was only insane in 1980. Now it’s incomprehensible. They’re going to have to restart indentured servitude there to afford service workers. But, in the meantime, I must tell you, humanity is resilient, and you can learn to put up with almost anything. Even Texas in the Summer. At least I can. So, if you don’t get greedy, having a roof over your head and three squares makes you tolerate otherwise unpleasant stuff. That’s the secret of Texas. You don’t have to love it. You just have to live here. Pace Jerry Brown and psychic income, California proved to me that you can’t live on love or eat prestige. But I had to learn the hard way.

The Mouse That Farted

Once again, it’s nostalgia time in ’09. Well, with a slight difference. We, the US of A, is being held hostage by a rounding error. Two actually. It sounds like a Mad Magazine law firm, Manchin and Sinema, rogue “Democrats” from Nowhere. Who needs Republicans when you got “Democrats” like these? Manchin (ne Mancini) is the Senator from Greenhouse Gases. Sinema (to whom I privately refer as Enema) is the Senator from She Used to Be. Don’t Ask. Their combined Gross State Product is approximately 2 percent of the GDP of US of A. Yup. That’s it. 2 freaking percent. Think about it for a moment.

You got 98 battleships waiting to get out of, say, Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. But there are 2 battleships, the Mancini and the Enema, blocking the Harbor Entrance. Meanwhile, there are, what, 183 assholes bearing down on Good Old Pearl with murder in the hearts. Let’s call these assholes The Torpedo Caucus. Once the Torpedo Caucus reaches Pearl, all Hell breaks loose, and, well you know how this slightly stylized version of Day of Infamy ends up. Not well. What was Admiral Biden, our stand-in for Admiral Husband Kimmel (he shared responsibility for Pearl that day, but who remembers the other dude? We can call her Vice Admiral Harris) to do? He’s got 98 ships of the line to worry about. If they don’t sortie from Pearl, they get blown to Kingdom Come. Literally, as you know. But there are these two recalcitrant, maybe even mutinous and rogue vessels, the Mancini and the Enema, blocking the way? What is a poor CIC to do?

All right, all right, the analogy ain’t exact, to put it mildly. I don’t care. You know where this is going, assuming you’re not some pain-in-the-ass Millenial or Generation XYZ, or whatever. What you gonna do, Admiral Biden? Remember what Ole Husband Kimmel did? Not a Hell of a lot. And your 98 capital ships get sent to the bottom, just like, well, the Arizona. And you end up sending a lot of good people to their death. And 70 years later, their blood is still oozing up from the bottom. Why? Because the Mancini and the Enema wouldn’t get out of the way, right?

Oh, come on, Salvucci, you say. If that isn’t the dumbest tale you’ve ever hatched up (far from it, dude, but I said it first), my name isn’t (fill in the blank, as you so choose; this is fantasy time. C’mon, anyone in their right mind would say you got the firepower of 98 battleships sitting there just waiting to get their asses kicked because 2 others were blocking them? What the Hell kind of Navy is this? What the Hell is wrong with them? Forget Admiral Biden. Just shoot your way out. What if their dead asses block the entrance, you say? Well, consider the alternative. You’re gonna die anyway. Maybe you might want to consider going out fighting. Maybe they’ll name a High School after you. You never know. Maybe Ft Hood could become Ft Biden. At least we wouldn’t be commemorating traitors. Biden, Benavides, pick something. Do freaking something. At least go out with some self-respect. You’re gonna get hammered anyway.

Fat fetched, all of it, right?

Yeah, that’s the point. When you have a political system subject to hold up from two assholes like Manchin and Sinema, you have a broken system. Admit it. Y’all remember Bill Bradley (D-NJ), late of Princeton, Oxford, and the Knicks? When Dollar Bill quit the Senate 20 some years ago, he said, look, the system is broken. Ho boy. He hadn’t seen nothing, had he?

I’ve never been a particularly good Catholic, good Democrat, or good anything else. But I sleep at night, mostly. What about you? Our political system is a disaster, and this is proof positive. When Joe Manchin calls the shots, it’s even worse than Trump.

Good night.

Down the House

Nope. Not Downashore. Maybe Joe Villari said downahouse, but I don’t think so. When I was a kid, “the House” meant only one place on Earth. The house of Pietro Delia and Maddalena Mangano. You didn’t know I was part Mangano? Learn something.

They lived a lot places in Philadelphia, but “the house” was 913 Cross Street. It was, as they now say, a two story “townhome”. Yeah. Between Passyunk Avenue and Moyamensing. Passyunk Avenue was simply “The Avenue.” Moyamensing, was, to me, where the prison was. Scary-looking place that no longer exists. The damn thing was so old it looked like it was out of the Middle Age, at least to a five-year old kid. That was the hood. Youse might call it South Philly, or we did. God knows what fancy-ass name they have for it today. These were my people. My real people. The Salvucci were add ons. Nice name, you know. It still can get you somewhere in Italy. The Delia, on the other hand, were nobodies. They were wonderful. The Corleone without guns, money, or “honor.” Talk about warm. You wanna know why I am 50 percent SOB today? Blame the Delias. I reached the age of 15 thinking everyone on Earth was like them. Fat chance. I’ve spent the rest of my life finding out what bastards most people are. Actually, it would be “basstids” in South Philly patois. I’m multipatois due to them.

For a lot of people, 913 Cross Street was the Center of the Universe. That would’ve been before World War II. I got there a little too late. But the glow was still there. They had already taken the NRA sign down, and the Blue Star too. No, tidadoof, it wasn’t Democratic propaganda although they sure as Hell all were Democrats. If there was a Republican on Cross Street, they sure weren’t a member of St Mary Magdalen de Pazzi, over on Montrose. Whatever they were, we didn’t know them.

By 1940, Pietro and Maddalena were Peter and Madeline. I knew my great grandfather as Peter Delia, and Great Grandmom as Great Greatmom. She was my Mother’s namesake. Big Petie and Little Pete were named after Pietro. It’s an Italian thang. You wouldn’t understand it. See, by 1940, we were All American. You can thank Mussolini and Hitler. What? You thought everyone loved Itais? Guess again. Now I may drop a few hints about our less-than-beloved status among the medeganz. Chances are YOU are Medeganz. Get over it. I never forget it. Part of my charm. Look it up.

Great grandmom and grandpop (the only ones I ever knew) had a peripatetic existence in Philadelphia. Actually I want to say that Pietro had lived somewhere else before making it to Philly. Unfortunately, he apparent had had a less than sympathetic boss whom he had hit over the head with a shovel before he made his way out of—I want to say Detroit, but I may be wrong. I have no idea. He was the sweetest man on Earth, so I figure he must have whacked a medeganz, who undoubtedly had it coming. Or so Delia lore has it. All I know is that by the time I knew him, he was over 80 and his eyes were shot. When we came into the living room (the townhome had an entryway, you know), he’d usually be lying on the sofa with a fedora covering his face. He’d normally light up and call me “picidu” which was a Sicilian term of affection for a kid. And he’d pinch my cheek. Then he’d lie down again.

Great Grandmom was similarly affectionate, but she didn’t speak much English, or Italian for that matter. From the sound of it, it was mostly Sicilian. For those of you not lucky enough to be part Sicilian, Sicilian is a language, not a dialect. Delia, in fact, is a place in Central Sicily near Caltanisseta, and, from what I know, has its own variant of Sicilian. To me, it was nearly incomprehensible (e.g., “He” in Tuscan or “standard” “Italian” is Lui. In Delianese (I think), it is “Idu.” Go figure. I think, but won’t swear to it, that you can hear a variety of it coming from Salozzo in The Godfather. and maybe from a young Vito. For those of you who sometimes wonder why I love that movie, it may have something to do with how much of it brings me back to my remote childhood. No blood. But plenty of idu). It’s a Sicilian thang, you really wouldn’t get it. Oh, and it is Delia. NOT DeLia, although even some Delia spell it that way. A medeganz made them do it.

The House only had a downstairs. A living room, dining room, kitchen, and a small yard with an outhouse. Yeah, you heard that right. My cousin Richie d’Adamo, who was a stellar violinist with the Pittsburgh Symphony, locked me in it once with Chico, this nasty Chihuahua who mostly barked a lot and didn’t like me. Richie has recently apologized to me to that atrocity, although, I have to tell you, I have no memory of it. Some trauma, right. The worse part was the outhouse smelled of, well, outhouse. There was an upstairs, of course, but not once did I visit it. My hang was mostly the living room and the kitchen. So it was for most of us.

Great grandmom is memorable to me for a few reasons. One of the best was her love of Liberace, whom she watched faithfully on the black and white tv. The other was her bawdy singing, which emerged mostly toward the end of her life when she was an invalid. I wish to God I could remember one of her favorite songs, which I can’t other than the imperishable verse, “Fishie stalk e baccala.” She swung that mother in 6/8 and I can still hear parts of it. Again, go back to the Godfather, the wedding scene, where Momma belts out a “Luna Mezz” same rhythm. In “real life,” incidentally, that was Morgana King (Messina, to you, medeganz). Great grandmom was definitely not Morgana King, but they could both blow and could both be raunchy. It’s a Sicilian woman thang. I’m not sure I get it, but it cracks me up all the same. Politically incorrect. Yeah.

rThe thing about the House was that it was small, but it was a social center, especially for my Mom’s generation. In the 1940s, my Mother–a Villari (Vallari, ok)–and her sisters. who looked like a bunch of fashion models, dear God, moved back and forth between West Philly and the House on a sort of daily basis. My Mother, Maddalena (the eldest daughter, named after her Mother’s mother) actually went to Southern (South Philly high) and not some namby pamby Catholic girls’ school in West Philly. I can imagine Joe Villari wasn’t having it; besides, my Mom must spent most of her time in South Philly with her cousins. You know, in those days, they could take public transportation at night and not worry. Think about that, if you want. I’d rather not. There was Maria Goretti on 10th Street. Don’t say nothing, ok? I think Lilian Reis went there.

In any event, by the time I had arrived, just getting to the House from West Philly was an adventure, for a little kid, at least. Grandmom didn’t drive, so it was PTC all the way, busses, trollies, subways, els (The Metro, right…..), transfers, tokens, no air conditioning, open windows, and all the sights and sounds of Philly you could take in. My God, I loved it. The 31 PTC trolley stopped on Haverford Avenue probably in front of Ragni’s old market at 66th Street. I got to ride “free” cause I was a little dude, which they judged by a bronze height marker on a pole by the operator. Those trolley tracks didn”t come up until maybe 1957 or 1958, so I’m going back to being 5 or younger. And the trolley was the old style, wooden sided kind. Man, what a trip. It must have been 50 years old then. Green and bumpy, but I loved it. We then proceeded to 63d and Market, where we boarded the El ( Market Street Subway Elevated, for outsiders).

Yeah, we took the El. All the time. It was safe. No one thought twice about it. When I firststarted riding it with Grandmom, the old cars were still in use, and they must have gone back to 1907, at least. With wicker seating, ivory fixed place strap-hangers, open windows, and busted wheels that screeched around every turn once you got underground. I’m so old I can still remember when the El must have gone all the way into Center City above ground. They were building the tunnel at 46th and Market when I was riding, and I remember the construction, and that was between 1952 and 1955. So, dude, I couldn’t have been much more than 3 or 4 at the time. You’re talking to what’s left of the real Philadelphians, and I doubt there’s that many of us. The Phillies stank; I didn’t know about the Eagles; and the Warriors had Wilt Chamberlain. Period. The City had a unique skyline, and no one had ever heard of Comcast or Amy Guttman. Thank God.

We’d ride the El to City Hall, where we transferred to the Broad Street Subway. The Subway only went South. Lol. Except coming home from South Philly. I had no conception that there was a city North of City Hall. Hell I never went there, so who cared? Maybe the Mummers did, or Frank Rizzo on one of his vice busting jaunts, but you could’ve fooled me. To the best of my memory, we’d ride the Broad Street subway down to Tasker Street, which today, I think is Tasker-Morris. Grandmom would pay her gas bill at the PGW store on Broad, and then–and I’m not real clear on this–I think we took another trolley on Tasker where we got off within a block or two of the House. And that’s when the fun started.

The House basically consisted of my Grandmom’s sisters and brothers, only two of whom married, and one, Kay, lived at 20th and Oregon, which was not much of a stretch. Johnny, Connie and Little Pete (there was also a Big Pete) lived on Cross Street. Little Pete was a sweet guy, overweight and had become agoraphobic by the time I knew him. If I had this right, he was my Grandmom’s nephew by her brother Tom, but his Mother had died and when Tom remarried, his second wife rejected Little Pete, whom my Great grandparents took in. Pete was a sort of mascot guy who was always there who always seemed slightly baffled by the world. He lived out his life on Cross Street and died of a heart attack at home when I was in college. Every Italian family has a Little Pete, more or less, lovable but sort of ineffectual.

Johnny and Connie both lived on Cross Street and I called them Aunt and Uncle. They were very close to Grandmom and to my Mother, and were always really sweet to me. Johnny was about 5’7″ and man, he reminded me of Maggio in From Here to Eternity, but much nicer. Just every bit as tough. He took a German 88 shell walking down a lane in France after D Day and ended up in hospital in England for a long time recuperating. He brought pieces of the shell back that he kept as a souvenir. He was keenly interested in world affairs even though he hadn’t finished high school. I remember him talking to my Dad about Europe, the Soviets, Italy, and stuff that people like Drew Pearson wrote about it. He was no dummy and I respected him. I saw a picture of him in uniform and believe me, he looked like he meant business. He was so tough that he died of cancer, but no one ever knew it because he just kept going until he couldn’t. He either smoked Camels or Lucky Strike, he had a wry laugh, and my memory of him was that he was a bit of a cynic. He may have been on disability after the War, but he was a blast to be around.

My Aunt Connie was tall and pretty, and she never married. She and Johnny took care of Great Grandmom and Grandpop and Little Pete. She was soft spoken, and I’m not entirely sure what she did for a living. I think the House was out of the labor force, but in a nice way. Gentle people, with an easy smile and an easy laugh. The place was small, but immaculate. We always had cold cuts around the kitchen table, which was the usual gathering place. Mostly it was small talk, chit chat, you know, family stuff, but never, to my recollection, anything mean. You know, they were just down to Earth and dutiful, the way that generation was. Nobody drank. The only vice was the numbers, which they played and I learned about early. What the number was on a given day, what you should pick, how you should play, oh boy, that was a class in itself. My favorite was when someone saw a number in a dream, which was quite Sicilian. I’ll be damned if I have any idea of anyone ever hit, but everyone played. From time to time, I was given the honor of picking a number from some menu of crazy choices that could include the birth weight of some family member’s newborn, the Eagles’ score, anything. I never hit anyway. That was it as far as vices went. Everybody knew who the local bookie was, but nobody, as far as I knew, played the horses.

For entertainment, we sat on the stoop. Them days, it was white marble and kept spotless. You’d hang and talk to the neighbors, or just watch people, or just just. I had a crush on the girl who lived next door, but she was, alas, in high school, an older woman. So my crush never prospered. She humored me.

We always went down the House over the holidays, which usually included an adventure in trying to park in a snow clogged side street in South Philly. The locals would shovel out a place for their car and then put a chair in it. Yeah. Usually a linoleum kitchen chair. God help you if you tried to park there, public street or not. The cops did nothing–they knew better than to mess with the locals’ definition of a property right, and Hell, half of them probably came from there. But you could always count on a full house at Christmas, and man, the closest I can come to telling you what it was like is to say watch the Christmas meal in The Godfather. Coppola got it right. My other cousins, Richie, Johnny Micomonaco, and Phil Delia would be there, and that was hysterical. I looked up to them (when Richie wasn’t locking me in the outhouse with Chico) and Johnny Mic was probably one of my favorite people on Earth (Phil was good too, but Johnny Mic was the kind of guy who graduated from Newman and LaSalle, joined the Navy and went to OCS during Vietnam, and then did the gunboat thing with the Marines. “Out of a sense of duty.” He was impressive, man, something out of the movies, and a great role model (and a dab hand with the ladies, I must say). Hey, we all had to learn, you know. I still talk to Richie and Johnny by phone and I’m always glad to see Phil. By contrast, I see none of my Salvucci cousins. I don’t know who half of them are. Nor do I much care. Tells you something. The Delia-d’Adamo-Micomonaco boys were always a trip, even a little kid got that. The older I got, the more fun they were. I’ll leave it at that.

Coming home with Grandmom from our visits was amazing–another PTC special. I got to ride the trolley down Ninth Street (what the Medeganz call “The Italian Market”). Man, in those days, it was really going, with lots of fruit and vegetable vendors, cheese dudes and butchers who had cages in front of their places where you could pick your dinner. It was always crowded as Hell, smelled to high heaven in the Summer, and was its own world. If you see Rocky, you can still get a feel for what it looked like in the early 1970s, when it had already begun to change. I loved watching the people, smelling the food, yelling at the animals (the real animals, not the human ones) and Grandmom never seemed to mind.By the time we reached the Benjamin Franklin Hotel, we were about read to dismount, but I was always intrigued by the acts at the Kite and Key club. Nah, I was too little. I only made it to the CR Club and Palumbo’s, and that was with my Mom and Dad right before I went to college. Did you ever see Sergio Franchi and Harry Guardino live? Well, I did. Another fringe benefit of being part of the South Philly scene.

Look, I know there were all kinds of problems. I wouldn’t tell you about any of them, and we had our share of, um, characters. They were human. But I have to tell you, and this is the God’s honest truth, they were not haters. I never heard a racist word come out of any of their mouths. The slang terms for Black Americans. NEVER. So when I watch these idiots carry bats up to Marconi Plaza to defend Columbus, I can honestly say I have no idea who they are. Or if I do, they weren’t my people. I learned a few words to describe them, but I’ll spare you an education. When people seem a bit confused by what seems to be a vein of sympathy for the Trumpers in South Philly, I don’t say much. But I know where some of them were coming from. I came from there too. And then I left. I sometimes wish I hadn’t, but in this life, there are some mistakes you have to make. There’s still a bit of South Philly in me, and if you want to know where my chip comes from, well, we all know Sonny had a temper.

May my relatives, now gone, rest in peace. I miss them. I don’t miss Berkeley or Princeton, but I do miss South Philly.

Computers will take all our jobs away. And other Fairy Tales

For a while, all I could read in the newspapers was some story about how robots, computers, some form of automation, was going to steal all our jobs. In vain I have tried to persuade people that this isn’t really good economics–a kind of “just so” story that Americans seem to thrive on. Please. Think. All our jobs disappear. All our income disappears. Then we have nothing to spend. And then no one has anything to sell. So there won’t be any need for robots, computers, UPCs, whatever the latest bogeyman is. Because no one will be able to sell anything to people with no income. There will be no production. Therefore, no one will be buying job destroying technology–because there will be no demand. Therefore, no supply. Was that so hard? Even Americans should be able to get this.

Ah, a typical economic fable retailed by someone who never met a payroll! You pinheads all think you are so smart.

Au contraire, friend of the worker. I just got out of CVS. And CVS proves that robotic, automatic, swipe and go technology–whatever it is, will not destroy jobs. And here’s the reason why. Upon discussion, I find that absolutely the same thing has happened to my sweet spouse. So, this is not a sample of one. Two, maybe, but not one.

So you go into CVS looking for a couple of things. Not just any CVS, mind you, but the CVS by The Pearl Brewery. In San Antonio, this is where the quality are. Like the Cellars apartments at the Pearl start at $2600 a month and go up to $3700. Median income in San Antonio is about 27 thou a year. So a cheapo at the Cellar would require 100 percent of San Antonio median income. You get the picture? Not exactly Section 8 level stuff. In any event, the CVS is Pearl level. The employees are not only nice, they actually seem to know what the Hell they are doing. Like, “Yes, that is on the Second Floor, Aisle 18.” And, by golly, it was. In a place where “We sure don’t have that sir,” is the most likely answer to a question about a particular item in stock, a lapidary response fills you with dread and respect. These guys don’t mess around. They deal with the Beautiful People, and the BP expect to be served.

Ok, so I pick up the antacid I’m looking for, and remember that Linda tells me she has a CVS card and be sure to use it, because it’s got a good coupon. Don’t sneer. Like Hyman Roth, I am a pensioner living on a fixed income. I pinch pennies. So does Linda. So what else is new?

So I go down to check out. There are two check out thingies. Scanner with bags and card readers. One is busy–and audibly announcing “Help is on the way!”. The other is at rest. I approach this job-killer cautiously. I know I’m not supposed to like it. I’m a Democrat. So I scan the first item. It works. Damn. The machine asks me for my CVS card or code. I remember Linda’s and punch it in–but I’m not done. I try to scan in a second item, same as the first. It don’t scan. Damn thing just looks at me. Hell, I don’t know. I stick the UPC in its face. Nothing. Ok, I scan the antacid in. Ok. Then the damn thing starts calling for my CVS card again. Wait, I did that already. And before I can do anything else, the monster says “You’re finished, inset credit card.” But wait a minute, the order isn’t right, unless CVS intendeds to lay an item on me. I stand there, frozen. Now wtf. Do I comply and end up ripping off CVS? But wait, there’s more. 20 seconds of deer-in-the-scanner inaction activates an alarm: “Help is on the Way!” the job killer starts. Wait. I didn’t ask for help. Besides, I thought the idea was for the thing to eliminate help.

Never fear. The same young woman who instantly told me where to find my proton pump stuff is right there, helping me. She eyes the receipt, the screen and my pile of goodies. BUSTED. There’s only one dishwasher cleaner. But I have two. Not to fear. She examines the device, presses a scan button, and rescans the errant item. Now the thing goes crazy and recomputes the total and asks me for me CVS code. Again. Ok. I can do this. I key it in and it’s like jackpot time in Reno. The scanner starts spewing out an endless spool of coupons for future use. I’m standing there swatting them away. The young woman bags my stuff. She smiles and says, bless her, “Young man, you’re all set.” Young man. As Maxwell Smart used to say, “Check.”

As I step outside, it is pouring rain. Like no tomorrow. I can’t remember the last time I saw it rain so hard here. Figures. My car is two blocks away. Oh well, it’s only water.

When I finally link up with Linda, who has been shopping with the BP, she pauses to tell me how wonderfully trained the staff at Hotel Emily are. I take it Hotel Emily is some kind of national world class level hotel. In San Antonio? Why? Well, Linda is telling me this because she was waiting out the rain on their portico in the Pearl and admiring their service. Good help, it appears, is still around. You just have to pay to get it. She then tells me HER CVS story. Oh, yeah, same thing that happened to me, but at a lower rent store. Took three tries to get the scanner to work assisted by at least one employee. Oh, I see. I stop and think of the times I’ve tried to use one of these things at the supermarket and had a bottle of wine (it’s Texas) to scan. Emergency!!!! Flashing red light. Friendly employee has to come and verify I’m over 21. Check.

Are you beginning to see a pattern here? If you are, you can skip the next few paragraphs. If not, I’m gonna spell the moral of the story out.

If you are a historically literate American (they exist) you have heard of Ned Ludd and the Luddites, the British handloom weavers who supposedly went after mechanized weaving in 1779 out of fear that machines were stealing their jobs. I believe Eric Hobsbawm called their actions collective bargaining with sledge hammers, or something like that.

Economic historians, starting with good old David Landes, have always had an interesting take on machine breakers and employment in the Industrial Revolution in England. Their argument was that the early machines were not only unreliable, but finicky, and called forth a whole new class of mechanics to attend them. Otherwise the damn things wouldn’t work. So, in the fantasy world of neoclassical economics (I said it before you did), labor was released from one less productive and skilled occupation to pursue higher value work in another occupation–mechanics. Of course, mechanics had transferable skills (spillovers) and they were like the bees in the apple orchard. They ended up inadvertently raising productivity in other industries even as hand loom weavers disappeared. And they all lived happily ever after. It’s called progress. Dickens might have said otherwise, but honestly, history is not fiction, whatever the pomos said.

Obviously, the smooth and costless redeployment of resources that the Econ (especially in the South) like to wax eloquent over is a little more complicated in the real world, and, guess what, there are losers in the process. But, in theory at least, the gains to the winners could be redistributed to compensate the losers–you know, like in trade adjustment dollars that Congress under centrist Democrats loved to stick into free trade legislation. Oh, sorry. Sore point. But I am sympathetic to the idea that markets don’t just costlessly do things. No one with any sense believes that. In fact, if it costs too much for a market to solve a problem, well, the market isn’t likely to solve it. That’s not socialism. That’s just reality.

So if you worry that these job-killing Demons aren’t going to just lead to a smooth adjustment in the labor market, you probably have some reason to worry. Let’s not overdo it, though. Scanning groceries at the market probably reduced the number of old-style cashiers, but we got a whole generation of big data crunchers to drive us crazy with questions we never dreamed of asking. Things do evolve. We don’t worship low skill jobs for the Hell of it. Unless we’re Spartacists from Oakland who thought Shining Path in Peru was way cool.

But this is the troubling part. Helping markets reallocate resources is politically fraught. Somebody has to recognize that progressive tax codes, social insurance and the rest are not the enemy, but a necessary part of the way a market economy will function. Margaret Thatcher notwithstanding, there is such a thing as society. There is a reason for worrying about a fraying social fabric in which the only thing someone seems to care about is his or her “freedom” and “rights.” If you haven’t noticed, the political consequences are horrendous, and in this Covid mess, we are seeing one of them. We need to educate Americans in basic economics, and not the cowboy capitalism that our Republican friends seem enamored of. It’s not only bad economics, it’s bad politics. Forget counting jobs. Start counting what it takes to have a good society in which everyone has a shot at getting ahead. The cashiers will then, to paraphrase Christ, take care of themselves.

Hurricanes (and other stuff) I have known

I was reading a fabulous (well, it is ok) book called Three Days at Camp David by Jeffrey Garten. Super nerd alert: it recounts the decisions that went into bringing an end to the gold-exchange standard in August 1971. I’m sure you’re just dying to know the details, but I’ll spare you. It is one of those really crucial events in financial history that about 15 people actually give a damn about, but that affects everyone. They just don’t happen to know it. Most of us are too busy obsessing over the NFL or some stuff. It’s ok. Turns out that Richard Nixon was obsessing over the Washington Redskins (I had to use the name, since that’s what they were called in the Dark Ages) even as he was eviscerating the dollar. And it was Nixon who was famously taped observing “I don’t give a shit about the lira.” Except the transcript at the time said “expletive deleted” instead of “shit.” So you’re in good company, if you consider Nixon good company, in your indifference. Incidentally, rumor has it that the Washington Football Team may soon be known as the WFT. Right. This from the No Fun League. Fcuk You, as the British brand, French Connection-UK has it. I’ll believe it when Carson Wentz rises from the Dead in a Cowboys uniform.

In any event, I was a 20 year old “sort of history sort of econ” student at Villanova, and I hadn’t gotten around to International Trade or Finance yet, so I’m not certain exactly how I was processing this at the time, other than I was about to embark on my first trip overseas (Spain, not Vietnam), and I do recall a cabbie in Madrid at the airport asking me “Que pasa con el Dollar?” God only knows what I told him, because I’m sure the idea that a fixed exchange rate didn’t just get set by God hadn’t yet occurred to me. How about you?

Back to Camp David. I was struck by a remark that George Schultz (remember him?) made in summoning up his memories of that historic weekend. He told Garten not to place much faith on his recollections because, basically, we tend to remember things better than they were. You know, remember the good and suppress the bad. He’s the second economist I’ve heard say that, the first being Albert Fishlow. Now, if Al and George Schultz both said something, it must be true, right?

Sorry, it doesn’t work that way with me. Not entirely at least. I’m not saying I don’t remember the good stuff from my past, because I certainly do. But I’d also say I don’t forget the bad stuff either. You know, I am part Sicilian, and we’re reputed to hold a grudge about as well as any primitive race on Earth. That, my friend, requires memory, because I do. Hold a grudge, that is. It took a great effort of the Five Families, shepherded by Don Vito Corleone, to get them to forget the past and stop killing each other. You know, get back to making money. Need I point out that Michael, at that very moment, chasing Appolonia in Sicily, was not a party to the agreement? Is your name Barzini or Tataglia? I didn’t think so. I read that psychologists who do memory research figure that our earliest childhood memories go back to about 3.5 years, although some now w think it may be a bitt earlier. No, you probably don’t remember being born, although that would be too cool. Or maybe too traumatic. For me, 3.5 years sounds about right, and I can document it.

Now, if you can remember Hurricane Hazel, you’ve probably got a little mileage on you. A lot, actually. I remember Hazel hitting Philadelphia. That was on October 15, 1954, and the storm was a doozy. It brought 90 mile per hour winds to Philly, because the eye of the storm passed just to the West of the city. Now, I don’t remember the storm, but I do remember the excitement in the run up to Hazel’s appearance. I would have been about 3.5 years old, as it turns out.

I remember sitting on the radiator cover in the kitchen of my grandparents stone house in West Philly looking out the window. The view was urban, driveway, Reale’s bakery, you know, really scenic. But that day, the sky caught my attention. I can still see it. It was sort of grayish green, muddy, and vaguely threatening. Admittedly, at the age of 3 you don’t have a vast body of experience with which to draw comparisons, but I don’t think I’ve ever quite seen the sky that color again, anytime, anywhere. I remember when Hurricane Donna came through in 1960, I was in class at Prisontation. The overhead lights were on because it was sort of night time dark outside and raining like Hell. It wasn’t scary or anything, just dark. I can’t say that Hurricane Agnes made much of an impression in 1972, other than it clobbered upstate Pennsylvania, flooded Wilkes Barre, and produced a genre of automobiles in Philly known as “flood cars” that were, eh, flooding the market because their wiring harnesses had gotten screwed up and they tended to behave erratically.

I think I remember taking the 44 bus (still Red Arrow?) into Philly along the Expressway and thinking I had never seen the river quite so high–which was accurate. I hadn’t. On the other hand, it wasn’t Philly’s problem, so I didn’t care. Pottstown flooded, but, like, quid boni, you know? It’s Pottstown. No one lives there.

This memory stuff intrigues me because while my long-term memory remains very good, my short term memory is slowly becoming that of an old dude. I can remember getting predictably hammered my first time out with champagne, but I can’t remember what I ate for breakfast. Or my first cigarette. Walking down Karakung Drive like a stud in high school, safely away from Devon Prep, where even the possession of a cigarette could get you tossed. I was 15 and quite fly. And, obviously, very, very stupid. That one, I’d like to get back. There are other firsts I can recall, but this is a PG site.

Thing is, I don’t think I only remember the good stuff, because if that’s the case, I had a strange notion of what fun was. I’m positive my earliest memory actually goes back to about 2. My Mom had me all dressed up in some ridiculous outfit, and I think we had gone out to Triangle Park, near my Grandparents’ home, so as to take pictures. I still have the pictures, but more to the point, I remember the day, because I stepped in dog crap. Now, you’d think a little kid stepping in dog crap would be no big deal, right? I mean, it’s stuff little kids do. I remember it smelled rank and all that. But most of all I remember my Mom absolutely hitting the roof and yelling at me. LOL. This was a theme in my childhood, and it probably is a key to my adult personality. Whenever an accident befell little Richard, little Richard caught Hell. From Mom. I don’t think there was anything malicious about this. I know there wasn’t, in fact. It was just my Mother, who was, er, excitable. And fastidious. And, like, everything–and I mean everything–had to be in its proper place. I remember once the nuns told us to put our shoes under the bed so we would remember to get down on our knees at night and pray. Uh, huh. Mom was having none of it. That’s not where shoes went. She was, so to speak, more concerned about my soles than my soul. And pulled rank on the nuns to show it. That’s just the way she was.

This one’s even better. As a kid at Prisontation, I was playing football at recess. Big deal, right? We all wanted to be Sonny Jurgensen or Tommy McDonald (look it up). Well, while I was into my Jurgy routine, one of my thuggy classmates (I have already written a bit about them) came crashing into me and managed to twist my arm into some odd position. Whereupon it broke. Yup. Broke.

Well, I knew I had a problem because it hurt like Hell, and I spent the afternoon in school in some pain. When I went home, I told Mom I hurt my arm playing football. She was not amused. Nor sympathetic We put some ice on it and she preceded to treat me as if I had contracted VD. She was not happy, to put it mildly. And every time I moved the damn thing, it hurt. A lot.

When my Dad got home–Mom didn’t drive–he took me over to Lankenau Hospital, where they did the x-ray thing. Dude: kid broke a wing. It’s gotta be reset and put in a cast. Do you remember those casts, man? They were something else. They put a stocking around your arm, then they encased it in some kind of plaster thing and solemnly told you not to wash it, wet it, crack it, spit on it, anything. Because, well, you wouldn’t want to have to go through this again. So, for six weeks, I wore it proudly on my right arm (dammit, I wrote left-handed, so it did me no good). I wasn’t playing trumpet yet, so I must have been no more than 11 or 12 years old, cause that would’ve been interesting. Maybe I would have learned to play left-handed. You know, that could’ve made all the difference in the world. Well, it didn’t.

When we got home, my Dad shepherding me into the kitchen said something to my Mom like “It’s broken.” He did not sound too pleased, although I don’t think his displeasure was completely directed at his son. My Mother went into some kind of shocked reaction. And then. Yup. You guessed it. She started yelling. Or at least raised her voice. I don’t recall the exact words, but it was something like I can’t believe you broke your arm, or something to that effect. I think I was sort of gratified, because the fact that I was in some pain didn’t elicit much sympathy. So, it was like, “See. It did hurt.” Funny the crap you remember. Bad as well as good. That was a particularly memorable moment.

I’ll treat you to one more, because this one has also influenced my subsequent existence. And I was pretty damn lucky.

I went to a birthday party at Hornet’s house. You’ll remember Hornet, my late, lamented classmate who had a way of attracting problems. Well, he had a birthday, and his parents tossed a party in the backyard of their house in Beechwood. Beechwood was, like an exurb of Penn Wynne and Wynnewood Valley, just to situate this properly. Well, it was the usual crummy kids’ party, you know stuff off the grill, including hot dogs.

I bet you can tell what’s coming. Like so many hyper kids, I always ate too fast, and I guess I was in the process of scarfing down a hot dog that day.

I choked on it.

All of a sudden, I remember it wouldn’t go down, wouldn’t come back, and I couldn’t breathe or talk or anything. But I was in trouble. For what seemed like an eternity, the damn thing just lodged there, blocking my windpipe. There was no Heimlich Maneuver in those days, but my heart was pounding furiously. Somehow, and I have no idea how, I guess I had a strong enough gag reflex to bring the damn thing up. And I did, whereupon said hot dog promptly fell to the ground. I was like (yeah, I was like) too terrified to be relieved, and I was covered in a cold sweat. My friends were sort of regarding me curiously. And laughing. Like “Ha, ha, doofuss almost choked to death.” Uber-cafone. And to raise the hilarity level even more, Hornet’s mutt, Cindy, fell upon the expelled hot dog with gusto, prompting even more laughter accompanies by “Cindy’s eating it!”

Well, no one made anything of it. I think only I knew what I thought had almost happened. Did it scare me. Man, I can still visualize the whole scene, including Cindy, and this has got to be more than 55 years ago. If Mom had been there, bets on whether she would have yelled?

Ever since, I have been deathly afraid of choking to death on food. And it really does affect the way I eat. I will eat hot dogs, but I never forgot that one almost killed me. When my kids were little, I’d insist on cutting them up in small pieces, much to the amusement of some of my tougher friends, who thought I was terribly overprotective. I was.

Break your arm and catch Hell. Damn near choke on a hotdog. Get a B on an English exam and be told you’re doing poorly in school. Total a car in a parking lot and watch it explode in slow motion around you. Yeah. I’m crazy. And there’s plenty more where that came from. I had fun for sure and no priest ever molested me. But my memory somehow refuses to suppress all the times when I screwed up but good. And didn’t get a prize or a redo. We all remember the past better than it was? Really? I think I remember it pretty much as it was. Good and bad. Better a realist than a fool.

Decent Interval

Boy, there’s nothing worse than a Democrat caught with his pants down. Remember Bill “I don’t not have sex with that woman” Clinton? He did denial pretty well, didn’t he. And outrage. Faux, as it happened, but, Hell, it worked in Arkansas. Why not on a the Big Stage? He also went down to Haiti to peddle his line there too, but you see how that worked out? Not too well. Like my Dad, Lou Larkins used to say, “The truth hurts, but at least you don’t look like a jackass.” Pop, meet Joe Biden and the same old, same old, otherwise known as the Democratic Party. In case you didn’t notice, they do outrage pretty well too. And, withal, manage to look like jackasses. About their amour propre, frankly, I could care less. But I do worry a little about collateral damage. Said damage being what otherwise looked to be a very promising start to a Democratic administration that faced one of the most serious challenges in American history, like maybe since the Civil War, or 1850, to be exact. And those guys didn’t have to deal with the climate change that the Republicans somehow miss, fire and flood, Hell, even the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse might have been impressed. You know. It’s in the Bible. But what would the Republicans know about the Bible? It’s a good prop for political theater, but come off you tired old ethics. Anyway, Biden had his work cut out for him. And he still does.

Now, some of us are old enough to remember Lyndon Johnson. Hey, some of us are even lucky enough to live cheek by jowl to the cool waters of the Pedernales, where LBJ had a homestead. I guess the judgment of history might be that, while an asshole, Johnson had a poor Texan’s sense of what it was like to be on the outside looking in–economical, racially, socially. Believe me, the kind of genetic defensiveness that accompanies the “they’re all laughing at me” reflex that a Southern sense of inferiority begets is powerful motivation. Johnson had his Ivy League bastards, inherited from JFK, to whom he was accidental successor. He didn’t much like ’em, but they could toss big words around in furrin tongues and do linear programing and stuff, all of which was guaranteed to win us that war in Veet Nam. Poor Lyndon. “Hey Hey, LBJ, how many boys did you kill today?” Somehow, I bet Joe wakes up at night hearing “Biden, Biden, don’t be hiden….Afghanistan is on your watch.” Damn, we don’t do foreign policy and wars. Haven’t since FDR. And that, boys and girls, was a long time ago. Just as we’re about to try getting the New Deal rolling again–and God knows, we need it–some tawny buggers in funny clothes and jabbering in a strange tongue while praying to some false God, well, jeez, they made Joe look bad. Real bad. And I think he and his supporters know it. The truth hurts, said my old man, but at least you don’t look like a jackass while you’re lying.

Now Joe’s problem here is what I call the “decent interval” trope. I know that even if you are old enough to remember Woodstock, you may not remember “decent interval.” And if you’re under the age of 50, well, unless you had some pretty good history teaching come your way, you won’t know. Since this is America, and we don’t do history–proudly, you may recall one of Obama’s hires (Susan Rice) at the UN lecturing all us old dudes stuck, and I mean, sir, stuck in the past, well, you probably don’t know much history. That’s ok. Join the club. This is America. You don’t have to know anything to be a member of the club. Just your rights and yore “freedom.” That’ll do, thank you.

So what is this “decent interval” stuff, and what does it have to do with Biden and Afghanistan. Well, nothing and everything, cause it’s just the take of an obscure college professor in South Texas (but I live near Johnson City!!), but it isn’t entirely speculative. First, let’s define our terms.

What is a “decent interval?” No, it’s not how long it took Bill Clinton to get warmed up again after his first go-round with some bimbo. Let’s start with the phrase, which provided the title for Frank Snepp’s book on the United States withdrawal from Viet Nam. Rather than deal with me, why don’t we lap Snepp have the floor

April 29, 1975: the evacuation of Saigon. It’s every man for himself; thousands of panic-stricken Vietnamese clawing at the Embassy gates, begging not to be left behind as the last of the Americans save themselves

If you were there that last day it was like being at a funeral where all the mourners are battling each other to avoid being abandoned at graveside.

I was one of those mourners: an operative for the Central Intelligence Agency and the CIA’s chief strategy analyst on the scene. I’d been in Vietnam five and half years when the end came. It was one of the most shameful moments I’ve ever lived through.

The reason it ended that way was wishful thinking on the part of a lot of American officials. Few wanted to admit the war was lost. So we waited too long to plan for the exit.

The final unraveling began two years before with the ceasefire negotiated by White House National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger. It got the last of the American troops out of South Vietnam, but left 140,000 North Vietnamese forces in the south. They wouldn’t get out because we hadn’t beaten them. And now they turned on the Saigon government itself…a government corrupt, inefficient, riddled with Communist spies, possibly as many as fourteen thousand of them according to intelligence estimates. A government about as solid and durable as Swiss cheese.

The first year of the so-called “cease-fire war” Congress tipped the odds hard against our allies by halting all U.S. bombing in Indochina, and a year later President Nixon resigned because of Watergate. The Communists were particularly encouraged by that event. They’d always seen Nixon as a madman whose unpredictability terrified them. With his departure they decided the road to Saigon was open.

In early 1975 they began chipping away at real estate close to the capital to test U.S. resolve and Saigon’s resiliency. The president of South Vietnam, Nguyen Van Thieu panicked, and in mid-March without telling any of us in the Embassy he ordered his forces to pull back in two crucial areas, the northernmost provinces of the country and the western highlands. The withdrawal — meant to preserve his best forces and strengthen his hand against potential coup-makers — quickly turned into a rout as terrified civilians became entangled in the retreating units. Over the next two weeks their Communist pursuers sliced the country in two and obliterated half of Saigon’s army.

It was too much for some Embassy officials to believe, including Ambassador Graham Martin. He was a Cold Warrior of the old stripe. He’d lost a son in Vietnam and he wasn’t going to lose Saigon to the Communists.

In early April, a month before the collapse, I briefed Martin, who had long considered me a trusted protege, on the destruction of government forces. He wouldn’t believe me. He insisted Saigon still had a chance.

In the next four weeks, he convinced himself and many in Washington that the Communists could be lured into another cease-fire and a new negotiated settlement that would leave South Vietnam intact though shorn of less “productive” territory. He refused to plan in earnest for an accelerated evacuation and many of us in the Embassy were forced to begin sneaking Vietnamese friends out of the country on cargo aircraft.

Four days before the end, in an effort to appease the Communists and sweeten the prospects for a last-minute political deal, the Ambassador persuaded President Thieu himself to step down and get out of Vietnam.

That night I drove Thieu to a secret airbase outside Saigon to catch his “black” flight out. Tracers lit the night sky, small arms fire crackled along the perimeters, and rumors of a murderous coup, like the one that had toppled and killed President Diem in 1963, were rampant. When Thieu showed up at the pick-up point, he was wearing a gray sharkskin suit, his hair slicked back and he looked like a model for an Asian edition of Gentleman’s Quarterly. He’d been weeping and drinking, but he had one consolation: he’d just slipped most of his gold out of the country.

As it turned out, Thieu made his escape safely. But it didn’t give the Communists a moment’s pause, any more than I’d expected it to. Indeed for weeks our intelligence had indicated they would stop for nothing, though the Ambassador wouldn’t believe it.

The latest and most definitive report had come two weeks before from a Vietnamese agent who’d never been wrong. This time he’d met with me at a safehouse near the capital and after chugging a beer – he loved Budweiser – had given me the bad news straight up: the Communists were going to overrun Saigon by the end of April, bringing in airstrikes and artillery, without any pause for a political fix.

That’s exactly what happened.

On April 28 Communist aircraft bombed the Saigon airbase, and that night their artillery began pounding the edges of the city, the concussion hurling many of us out of bed.

But still Ambassador Martin was hopeful. He thought we could evacuate by fixed-wing aircraft at a leisurely pace. He wouldn’t even chop down a large Tamarind tree in the embassy courtyard to make way for helicopters. That was a mistake. The landing strips were soon blown apart, and with one hundred forty thousand Communist troops now within an hour’s drive of downtown Saigon, we clearly had not a moment to waste.

Mid-morning of the 29th, the White House finally overrode Martin and decided to send in helicopters from the evacuation fleet offshore. The signal to evacuate: a Saigon radio broadcast of Bing Crosby’s “I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas.”

For all of the advance warning the evacuation order caught the Embassy staff off guard – so much so we didn’t even have a master list of the Vietnamese employees, agents and collaborators who desperately needed to be rescued. So we spent the day rescuing ourselves and whatever lucky Vietnamese could sneak, beat or cajole their way onto a U.S. helicopter or sailing vessel.

At the Embassy walls Marine guards played God, picking those who would be saved, kicking back those who wouldn’t. Mothers were separated from children, some were trampled, others abandoned just outside the gates

Meanwhile remnants of the South Vietnamese army and air force fled into our arms, abandoning boats and aircraft at sea as they struggled to reach the evacuation fleet.

By mid-afternoon the Embassy compound itself was jammed with desperate Vietnamese waiting to be choppered off the roof or from the courtyard which had now been cleared of Martin’s Tamarind. I walked among them, handing out water and often- vain encouragement. At one point, the downdraft from an overladen chopper tore open bags of secret documents discarded in the courtyard and flung them into nearby treetops. The North Vietnamese would later use these and other abandoned files to identify agents and collaborators we’d left behind.

As the pace of the airlift accelerated, more and more Vietnamese were crammed inside the Embassy to hasten departures from the roof. Some were cradling animals, others clutched wailing children and as the air conditioning system broke down the heat and stench became unspeakable. Explosions rocked the building periodically as thermite grenades were used to destroy sensitive equipment, and through much of the day the walls shook as from a creeping case of nerves as rooftop incinerators gobbled up tons of classified files that had been left till the last moment to be destroyed.

From time to time I stopped by the CIA operations room to listen in horror at the radios as stranded Vietnamese agents pleaded over the circuits for help, begging not to be forgotten. Some would be picked up by Air America helicopters that CIA colleagues and I sent shuttling around the city. Most would be forgotten.

At one point a Vietnamese woman who had borne a child she said was my own called to say she would kill herself and the boy if I couldn’t rescue them. I told her to call back in an hour — I’d help her then. But when she called back I was downstairs briefing the Ambassador on another useless piece of intelligence, and she made good on her promise, adding two more deaths to those already weighing on my conscience.

When my time came to leave that night, with the last CIA contingent in the Embassy, we had to push Vietnamese out of the way in the halls to get to the chopper on the roof. I couldn’t look into their eyes.

Retreat is the most difficult of all military operations. But as a matter of honor you do not leave friends on the battlefield. In the evacuation of Saigon over half of the Vietnamese who finally got out escaped on their own with no help from us until they were far at sea.

The last CIA message from the Embassy declared: Let’s hope we do not repeat history. This is Saigon station signing off.

Sound familiar, y’all? Oh, wait, you ain’t seen nothing. I want you to take a look at Anthony Cordesman’s analysis of Afghanistan, which is available for download, if you want to read it (y’all can read, even if you’re a Democrat, right). I won’t download the whole thing. Just Cordesman’s introduction.

The sudden collapse of the Afghan central government and the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) has occurred with stunning speed. It has clearly been driven by the fact that both President Trump and President Biden not only announced deadlines for the withdrawal of U.S. military support, but they then cut that support to levels where Afghan forces could not survive and where many Afghan politicians and government figures were willing to stand aside or surrender.

It also, however, is the collapse of a house of cards that took some twenty years to build and that was driven as much by failures at the civil level as the military level. It is a bipartisan failure, and one that was ultimately driven by a U.S. inability to provide objective and effective assessments of the developments in the Afghan government it was trying to aid and of the Taliban threat.

This analysis attempts to list the many factors that made both defeat and a sudden collapse possible, and it attempts to make it clear that any valid analysis must examine all of these factors and not simply the events that have taken place in the months since President Trump first set a deadline for U.S. and allied withdrawals in February 2020 or during the weeks in July and August 2021 that gave the Taliban control over most of the country.

It does highlight a wide range of issues and actions for which the U.S. must take responsibility, but it also highlights the fact that many of the failures were caused by Afghans. It also focuses on a lesson that is all too clear from other successful insurgencies that range from the rise of communism in Russia and China to the collapse of Vietnam – and most other successful insurgencies since the end of World War II. No outside power can help a failed government that cannot help itself.

This report entitled, The Reasons for the Collapse of Afghan Forces, is available for download at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/210816_Cordesman_Sudden_Collapse.pdf?8G.OilPH6D9mfPnqBJ4HpitDeh1k2Xaw

Now, obviously, Cordesman and Snepp aren’t talking about exactly the same thing. But you might say there is a ring of familiarity, no, especially in the chaotic circumstances of our withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the mendacious behavior of Biden’s Secretary of State who made everything even worse (if possible) by calling Afghanistan a successful mission. Please don’t force me to upload clips of Biden and Blinken (and Nod?) yelling out to their Amen corner in righteous indignation about we had accomplished. You don’t need it. and I don’t want to do it. My only observation is that if Biden and Company were caught with their pants down–they didn’t see this coming, well, then, none of them belong where they are–and believe me, I think Biden’s economic program and attempts to do something about mitigating climate change are not only necessary, but maybe too late. You know, the horse is out of the barn sort of thing? The real issue is that they too were counting on a decent interval. And, dammit, the Taliban didn’t give it to them. Can you believe it? The nerve. Just like those damned North Veet Nameeses. Like my hero Michael Corleone liked to say, “Don’t insult my intelligence.” Yeah. Please. They didn’t get the decent interval. Well, imagine that…….

Look, I gotta level with you. I don’t give a rat’s backside about Biden or the Democrats. But I do care about the country. And I know damn well that if this shit show continues, the Democrats will first lose the House, and, then, God knows, probably the Presidency. The infrastructure stuff will probably simply come to a halt. If we get some clown in Trump’s mold (and why wouldn’t we?), the patient reversal of all the damage that he and his cabal of criminals did to environmental regulations, the EPA, NOAA, State, and probably the Congressional dining room will simply bite the dust. And then where are we? Back to square one, having wasted even more time while the “progressives” slug it out over who has the most compelling grievance story? Don’t insult my intelligence. After all, it’s only the future.

I voted for Biden and the Democrats not because I particularly liked them or respected them, but because I was truly afraid that they might be the last chance we have to save America’s sorry backside. I still think that, but evidently, the sense of urgency that has been giving me insomnia doesn’t quite seem to have taken hold in some quarters. Instead, I am told I expect too much. Oh, really? Define too much.

If y’all want to know what’s around the bend for America, come to Texas. I’ll be happy to explain it to you, because I have been here for 30 years. Not that that means anything. After all, it doesn’t make me an expert, but at least I can find Mexico on a map. And I know they don’t want Texas back. Believe me, they were better off with everything they lost. They weren’t using it. Meanwhile, what Mexico lost turned into the basis of a Civil War for those ingenious Yankees and their Southern kin. Slavery in the territories? Really? I think the Mexicans got the better end of the deal, whether they know it or not.

The Irony of American History. Never ceases to enthrall me. We’ll probably have to wait another century to see how this all turns out. Thank God I won’t be here to say “I told you so.”